{
  "schema_version": 2,
  "status": "provisional_turnout_preview",
  "project": "TENOK Local",
  "study": {
    "type": "hypothetical_aggregate_turnout_test",
    "historical_data": "real_aggregate_records",
    "purpose": "Evaluate historical party participation patterns and explore a hypothetical 2026 turnout scenario.",
    "future_accuracy_established": false
  },
  "race": "Oklahoma County Assessor",
  "county": "Oklahoma County",
  "county_fips": "40109",
  "election_date": "2026-11-03",
  "registration_snapshot_date": "2026-09-23",
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      "share_of_participants": 0.4646161563914801,
      "reference_turnout_rate": 0.6100658635083567
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      "share_of_participants": 0.3607211518264023,
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    {
      "party": "independent",
      "label": "Independent",
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      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.3677082146996308,
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      "party": "libertarian",
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      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.47667592206512266,
      "share_of_participants": 0.009233166178649244,
      "reference_turnout_rate": 0.47667592206512266
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        },
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          "registration_as_of": "2018-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
          "election_date": "2018-11-06"
        },
        {
          "party": "independent",
          "label": "Independent",
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          "turnout_rate": 0.3858348633909731,
          "registration_as_of": "2018-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
          "election_date": "2018-11-06"
        },
        {
          "party": "libertarian",
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          "registration_as_of": "2018-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
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    {
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          "election_date": "2020-11-03"
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          "election_date": "2020-11-03"
        },
        {
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        {
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    {
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          "election_date": "2022-11-08"
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    {
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          "election_date": "2024-11-05"
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          "registration_as_of": "2024-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
          "election_date": "2024-11-05"
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      "precinct_id": "550559",
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      "precinct_id": "550561",
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      "precinct_id": "550563",
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      "precinct_id": "550564",
      "registered_voters": 1253,
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      "precinct_id": "550566",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550567",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550568",
      "registered_voters": 1898,
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550569",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550570",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550571",
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      "precinct_id": "550572",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550573",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550574",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550575",
      "registered_voters": 2669,
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      "baseline_expected_participation": 1126.7764838574922
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550576",
      "registered_voters": 2667,
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550577",
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      "precinct_id": "550578",
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550579",
      "registered_voters": 1925,
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550580",
      "registered_voters": 1424,
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550581",
      "registered_voters": 278,
      "expected_participation": 151.45130256695478,
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      "baseline_expected_participation": 129.9825994253086
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550582",
      "registered_voters": 781,
      "expected_participation": 295.79563553744936,
      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.3787396101631874,
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550583",
      "registered_voters": 487,
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      "baseline_expected_participation": 172.86979271798444
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550584",
      "registered_voters": 22,
      "expected_participation": 11.414093871085308,
      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.5188224486856958,
      "baseline_expected_participation": 9.717534180397276
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550585",
      "registered_voters": 892,
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      "baseline_expected_participation": 375.8138648931041
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550586",
      "registered_voters": 201,
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      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.47589892479393875,
      "baseline_expected_participation": 80.37201509975986
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550587",
      "registered_voters": 464,
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      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.5022912560661282,
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    {
      "precinct_id": "550588",
      "registered_voters": 517,
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      "baseline_expected_participation": 179.15961274635197
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  ],
  "validation": [
    {
      "reference_year": 2018,
      "year": 2022,
      "conditional_on_observed_county_total": true,
      "validates_current_weighted_test": false,
      "weighted_rate_mae": 0.01777051653079863,
      "uniform_rate_baseline_mae": 0.0771324447207279,
      "share_mae": 0.00890577876840696,
      "parties": [
        {
          "party": "republican",
          "predicted": 104425.124881178,
          "observed": 108085,
          "rate_error": -0.019523394833175993
        },
        {
          "party": "democratic",
          "predicted": 85940.92151839622,
          "observed": 82630,
          "rate_error": 0.02065569195024189
        },
        {
          "party": "independent",
          "predicted": 30597.040280572794,
          "observed": 30909,
          "rate_error": -0.0032843396722311803
        },
        {
          "party": "libertarian",
          "predicted": 2028.913319852985,
          "observed": 1368,
          "rate_error": 0.1544911921114972
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "reference_year": 2020,
      "year": 2024,
      "conditional_on_observed_county_total": true,
      "validates_current_weighted_test": false,
      "weighted_rate_mae": 0.011279213914739766,
      "uniform_rate_baseline_mae": 0.076726103680266,
      "share_mae": 0.004567333612186139,
      "parties": [
        {
          "party": "republican",
          "predicted": 133688.01761378127,
          "observed": 136345,
          "rate_error": -0.013654540338044531
        },
        {
          "party": "democratic",
          "predicted": 103083.77047599923,
          "observed": 101226,
          "rate_error": 0.011543177164297687
        },
        {
          "party": "independent",
          "predicted": 51490.33420972005,
          "observed": 51026,
          "rate_error": 0.004195664676245154
        },
        {
          "party": "libertarian",
          "predicted": 2605.877700499413,
          "observed": 2271,
          "rate_error": 0.06789896603799941
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "analog_test": {
    "weights": [
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "weight": 0.7
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "weight": 0.3
      }
    ],
    "selection": "2018 emphasized at the user's request; the 70/30 split is a test assumption, not a fitted or independently validated optimum.",
    "independently_validated": false,
    "sensitivity": [
      {
        "weight_2018": 0.0,
        "weight_2022": 1.0,
        "expected_participation": 231006.64008913582,
        "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.49243072613140876
      },
      {
        "weight_2018": 0.5,
        "weight_2022": 0.5,
        "expected_participation": 246620.84513888418,
        "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.5257151127951231
      },
      {
        "weight_2018": 0.7,
        "weight_2022": 0.30000000000000004,
        "expected_participation": 252866.52715878355,
        "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.5390288674606089
      },
      {
        "weight_2018": 1.0,
        "weight_2022": 0.0,
        "expected_participation": 262235.05018863257,
        "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.5589994994588375
      }
    ],
    "baseline": {
      "label": "Previous local preview, anchored to the released statewide model",
      "expected_participation": 218062.8996655542,
      "predicted_turnout_rate": 0.464838898064556,
      "parties": [
        {
          "party": "republican",
          "expected_participation": 105576.45889848242
        },
        {
          "party": "democratic",
          "expected_participation": 76838.09208953768
        },
        {
          "party": "independent",
          "expected_participation": 34202.22069312465
        },
        {
          "party": "libertarian",
          "expected_participation": 1446.1279844094097
        }
      ]
    },
    "change_from_baseline": 34803.627493229345
  },
  "candidate_forecast": {
    "status": "unavailable",
    "estimates": []
  },
  "method": {
    "county_total": "The county total is the sum of each registered party's current registration multiplied by its weighted historical turnout rate. It is no longer anchored to the statewide forecast total.",
    "party_allocation": "Each party's participation rate blends 70% of its 2018 rate with 30% of its 2022 rate, then applies that blend to current registration. This tests a stronger 2018 analogy without treating the 2018 raw vote count as a 2026 prediction.",
    "precinct_allocation": "The statewide model supplies the relative precinct turnout pattern. A common adjustment to precinct turnout odds makes the precinct estimates sum to this county test. These are adjusted scenarios, not separately fitted 2018 precinct analogs.",
    "denominator": "All registered voters, including active and inactive status, in the September 23, 2026 EDW snapshot; held constant through election day.",
    "validation": "The existing 2018-to-2022 and 2020-to-2024 retrospective checks supply observed later-election county totals and registration. They test single-election party composition patterns, not this new weighted county forecast. The 2018/2022 blend has no untouched later midterm for validation in the available data. Its weights are scenario assumptions; sensitivity results are not probability intervals.",
    "limits": [
      "The 2018/2022 weights have not been independently validated or selected for superior predictive accuracy.",
      "Party registration is not candidate preference.",
      "Participation in the election is not the number of votes cast in the Assessor contest.",
      "No candidate vote estimates or win probabilities are provided.",
      "Party estimates have no calibrated probability intervals.",
      "No polling, absentee-request trends, or voter-removal model is included.",
      "County party totals are used directly; historical precinct geometry matching is not required for the party allocation."
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Oklahoma Election Data Warehouse \u2014 current registration",
      "url": "https://data.okelections.gov/",
      "as_of": "2026-09-23"
    },
    {
      "label": "TENOK general-election forecast and validation",
      "url": "https://turnout.tenok.org/#forecast"
    },
    {
      "label": "Official historical election statistics",
      "url": "https://stats.okelections.gov/"
    },
    {
      "label": "TENOK aggregate history API",
      "url": "https://tenok-turnout-api.sam-e00.workers.dev/v1/counties?election=ok_2022_general&affiliation=republican"
    }
  ]
}